Intelligence Brief: Russia May Attack Trade or Infrastructure Outside Ukraine

Summary: If Ukraine’s counteroffensive this summer and fall makes significant progress then Moscow will have to change its approach, which likely means escalating politically and militarily outside of Ukraine. This could mean non-attributable attacks on economic infrastructure in Europe or beyond or further interruptions to natural gas trade. Meanwhile, the G7 will discuss tougher sanctions including those reportedly designed to impact Russian crude production. This may further strengthen Russian resolve to act outside the conflict area.

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