Iran Nuclear Deal Appears Close

The U.S. State Department restored waivers of Iranian sanctions that allow companies and countries to collaborate with Iran on peaceful nuclear activities.

 

This may be a precursor to facilitating the removal of enriched Uranium from Iran, a key U.S. objective. In any event, it is a nudge of Iran by the U.S. that may signal an Iran nuclear deal is close.

 

ESAI Energy now believes some kind of deal is distinctly greater than 50 percent likely. Although we caution most of the uncertainty is on the Iranian side and it is difficult to know what Iran will do at the eleventh hour. A renewed nuclear deal would be a significant change in the global oil market as additional Iranian oil sales would take Iran’s exports above current levels of about 1.1 million b/d (crude and condensate).