In the war in Ukraine, western political solidarity has been strong. This bodes poorly for Russia’s long-term prospects in its war against Ukraine and for it having any chance of coming to some sort of entente with Europe if fighting were to come to a halt. In the meantime, steps are being taken by individual countries and the European Union to significantly reduce reliance on Russian energy – starting with coal, working through oil, and eventually getting to gas. With regard to oil, it is really pipeline -dependent Germany and Poland that can move the needle on Russian crude exports, but progress towards an EU-wide embargo has moved in fits and starts and still seems elusive as of this writing.
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